Week of August 3, 2026
Peñarol’s title probability climbs 97.5 points to 100% · updated 2026-08-03
Biggest race movement this week
Peñarol Primera División · Title2% → 100% (+97.5)
Suchitepequez Liga Nacional (Guatemala) · Relegation1% → 97% (+95.8)
Austria Vienna Austrian Bundesliga · Relegation38% → 98% (+60.0)
Milford FC Betway Premiership · Relegation44% → 97% (+53.2)
Bodo/Glimt Eliteserien · Title21% → 73% (+52.1)
Deportivo Maldonado Primera División · Title90% → 0% (-89.5)
Aurora FC Liga Nacional (Guatemala) · Relegation61% → 2% (-59.0)
St Johnstone Scottish Premiership · Relegation53% → 1% (-51.9)
Chaco For Ever Primera Nacional · Relegation69% → 26% (-43.9)
Seattle Sounders FC MLS · Playoffs98% → 56% (-42.8)
Closest races right now
USL League One ChampionForward Madison FC 15% · chased by Union Omaha, Charlotte Independence
MLS MLS CupVancouver Whitecaps FC 19% · chased by Nashville SC, Inter Miami CF
Liga MX ChampionToluca 19% · chased by Pumas UNAM, América
NWSL ChampionGotham FC 22% · chased by Washington Spirit, Utah Royals
Liga Profesional Argentina ChampionBelgrano (Córdoba) 29% · chased by Independiente Rivadavia, Argentinos Juniors
Northern Super League ChampionAFC Toronto 34% · chased by Ottawa Rapid FC, Montreal Roses FC
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 34 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 23 hit (67.6%). We publish the misses too:
The Strongest 1–1 Aurora División Profesional · 2026-07-31had The Strongest at 76% · draw
Aalesund 1–1 Viking FK Eliteserien · 2026-07-26had Viking FK at 75% · draw
Palmeiras 1–2 Atlético-MG Brasileirão Série A · 2026-07-26had Palmeiras at 74% · away win
Universidad Católica 3–3 La Serena Liga de Primera · 2026-07-26had Universidad Católica at 72% · draw
Flamengo 1–1 São Paulo Brasileirão Série A · 2026-07-26had Flamengo at 64% · draw
Tigres UANL 2–2 Atlético de San Luis Liga MX · 2026-07-26had Tigres UANL at 64% · draw
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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