Week of August 4, 2026
Peñarol’s title probability climbs 97.5 points to 100% · updated 2026-08-04
Biggest race movement this week
Peñarol Primera División · Title2% → 100% (+97.5)
Suchitepequez Liga Nacional (Guatemala) · Relegation1% → 96% (+94.6)
Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa · Relegation33% → 100% (+66.7)
Rakow Ekstraklasa · Relegation33% → 100% (+66.7)
Wieczysta Krakow Ekstraklasa · Relegation33% → 100% (+66.7)
Deportivo Maldonado Primera División · Title90% → 0% (-89.5)
Örgryte IS Allsvenskan · Relegation91% → 27% (-64.1)
Aurora FC Liga Nacional (Guatemala) · Relegation61% → 4% (-57.6)
Fakel Voronezh Russian Premier League · Relegation75% → 22% (-52.9)
St Johnstone Scottish Premiership · Relegation53% → 1% (-51.9)
Closest races right now
USL League One ChampionForward Madison FC 15% · chased by Union Omaha, Charlotte Independence
MLS MLS CupVancouver Whitecaps FC 18% · chased by Inter Miami CF, Los Angeles FC
Liga MX ChampionToluca 19% · chased by Pumas UNAM, América
NWSL ChampionGotham FC 22% · chased by Washington Spirit, Utah Royals
Austrian Bundesliga ChampionLASK Linz 28% · chased by RB Salzburg, Wolfsberger
Northern Super League ChampionAFC Toronto 35% · chased by Ottawa Rapid FC, Montreal Roses FC
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 34 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 26 hit (76.5%). We publish the misses too:
The Strongest 1–1 Aurora División Profesional · 2026-07-31had The Strongest at 76% · draw
Chengdu Rongcheng 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns Chinese Super League · 2026-08-01had Chengdu Rongcheng at 75% · draw
CSKA Moscow 1–1 Krylia Sovetov Russian Premier League · 2026-08-01had CSKA Moscow at 66% · draw
Trujillanos 2–0 UCV FC Liga FUTVE · 2026-08-01had UCV FC at 63% · home win
Atlético Bucaramanga 1–1 Cúcuta Deportivo Categoría Primera A · 2026-08-04had Atlético Bucaramanga at 62% · draw
Shanghai Port 0–1 Shandong Taishan Chinese Super League · 2026-08-01had Shanghai Port at 61% · away win
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive dashboard →