Week of August 9, 2026
Peñarol’s title probability climbs 97.5 points to 100% · updated 2026-08-09
Biggest race movement this week
Peñarol Primera División · Title2% → 100% (+97.5)
Qingdao Hainiu Chinese Super League · Relegation4% → 100% (+96.1)
Grazer AK Austrian Bundesliga · Relegation4% → 100% (+95.6)
Suchitepequez Liga Nacional (Guatemala) · Relegation1% → 96% (+94.6)
Gotham FC NWSL · Shield6% → 100% (+93.8)
Örgryte IS Allsvenskan · Relegation91% → 0% (-90.7)
Deportivo Maldonado Primera División · Title90% → 0% (-89.5)
Fakel Voronezh Russian Premier League · Relegation75% → 0% (-74.6)
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng Chinese Super League · Relegation69% → 0% (-69.4)
Viking FK Eliteserien · Title64% → 0% (-64.0)
Closest races right now
Liga MX ChampionToluca 17% · chased by Pumas UNAM, Cruz Azul
MLS MLS CupVancouver Whitecaps FC 18% · chased by Inter Miami CF, Los Angeles FC
MLS ShieldNashville SC 42% · chased by Inter Miami CF, Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Austrian Bundesliga ChampionLASK Linz 50% · chased by Wolfsberger, Rapid Vienna
Scottish Championship ChampionAyr 50% · chased by Livingston, Partick
Scottish Championship PromotedLivingston 77% · chased by Ayr, Partick
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 11 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 7 hit (63.6%). We publish the misses too:
Chengdu Rongcheng 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns Chinese Super League · 2026-08-01had Chengdu Rongcheng at 75% · draw
CSKA Moscow 1–1 Krylia Sovetov Russian Premier League · 2026-08-01had CSKA Moscow at 66% · draw
Shanghai Port 0–1 Shandong Taishan Chinese Super League · 2026-08-01had Shanghai Port at 63% · away win
AIK 0–3 Örgryte IS Allsvenskan · 2026-08-02had AIK at 61% · away win
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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