Week of August 11, 2026
Peñarol’s title probability climbs 97.5 points to 100% · updated 2026-08-11
Biggest race movement this week
Peñarol Primera División · Title2% → 100% (+97.5)
Qingdao Hainiu Chinese Super League · Relegation4% → 100% (+96.1)
Suchitepequez Liga Nacional (Guatemala) · Relegation1% → 96% (+94.6)
TSV Hartberg Austrian Bundesliga · Relegation6% → 100% (+94.1)
Brøndby IF Superliga · Title8% → 100% (+91.9)
Örgryte IS Allsvenskan · Relegation91% → 0% (-90.7)
Deportivo Maldonado Primera División · Title90% → 0% (-89.5)
Fakel Voronezh Russian Premier League · Relegation75% → 0% (-74.6)
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng Chinese Super League · Relegation69% → 0% (-69.4)
Viking FK Eliteserien · Title64% → 0% (-64.0)
Closest races right now
Liga MX ChampionToluca 17% · chased by Pumas UNAM, Cruz Azul
MLS MLS CupVancouver Whitecaps FC 18% · chased by Los Angeles FC, Inter Miami CF
Northern Super League ChampionAFC Toronto 35% · chased by Ottawa Rapid FC, Montreal Roses FC
MLS ShieldNashville SC 42% · chased by Inter Miami CF, Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Scottish Championship ChampionAyr 50% · chased by Livingston, Partick
Scottish Championship PromotedLivingston 77% · chased by Ayr, Partick
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 2 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 1 hit (50.0%). We publish the misses too:
CSU Craiova 0–1 FC Arges Liga I (Romania) · 2026-08-09had CSU Craiova at 64% · away win
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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