Week of August 24, 2026
Newport County’s promotion probability climbs 99.4 points to 100% · updated 2026-08-24
Biggest race movement this week
Newport County EFL League Two · Promotion1% → 100% (+99.4)
Arouca Primeira Liga · UCL1% → 100% (+99.4)
Hannover 96 2. Bundesliga · Relegation1% → 100% (+99.1)
Woking National League · Relegation1% → 100% (+99.1)
Hull Premier League · UCL1% → 100% (+98.8)
Livingston Scottish Championship · Playoffs82% → 0% (-82.2)
Sporting CP Primeira Liga · UCL77% → 0% (-76.6)
PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie · UCL76% → 0% (-75.6)
Seattle Sounders FC MLS · Playoffs97% → 23% (-73.5)
Ceará Brasileirão Série B · Relegation71% → 0% (-71.0)
Closest races right now
USL League One ChampionForward Madison FC 15% · chased by Union Omaha, Charlotte Independence
Liga de Expansión MX ChampionLeones Negros 16% · chased by Tapatío, Club Atlético Morelia
MLS MLS CupVancouver Whitecaps FC 22% · chased by Nashville SC, Los Angeles FC
Liga MX ChampionToluca 22% · chased by América, Guadalajara
NWSL ChampionGotham FC 25% · chased by Washington Spirit, San Diego Wave FC
J1 League ChampionMachida Zelvia 30% · chased by Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Kashiwa Reysol
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 46 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 34 hit (73.9%). We publish the misses too:
Colo Colo 2–2 O'Higgins Liga de Primera · 2026-08-16had Colo Colo at 87% · draw
Always Ready 1–1 Real Potosí División Profesional · 2026-08-16had Always Ready at 80% · draw
Universidad Católica 1–2 Ñublense Liga de Primera · 2026-08-23had Universidad Católica at 74% · away win
Universidad de Chile 1–2 Colo Colo Liga de Primera · 2026-08-23had Universidad de Chile at 71% · away win
La Serena 3–3 Cobresal Liga de Primera · 2026-08-23had La Serena at 70% · draw
Audax Italiano 0–0 Unión La Calera Liga de Primera · 2026-08-22had Audax Italiano at 70% · draw
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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