Week of August 30, 2026
Newport County’s promotion probability climbs 99.4 points to 100% · updated 2026-08-30
Biggest race movement this week
Newport County EFL League Two · Promotion1% → 100% (+99.4)
Queens Park Rangers EFL Championship · Promotion1% → 100% (+98.7)
Eibar LaLiga 2 · Relegation1% → 100% (+98.7)
Plymouth Argyle EFL League One · Relegation2% → 100% (+98.3)
Tenerife LaLiga 2 · Playoffs2% → 100% (+98.0)
Hull Premier League · Relegation94% → 0% (-93.6)
Deportivo Maldonado Primera División · Title74% → 1% (-73.8)
Rochdale EFL League Two · Promotion70% → 0% (-70.2)
Cerro Primera División · Relegation80% → 13% (-67.4)
Galatasaray Süper Lig · UCL66% → 0% (-66.4)
Closest races right now
Liga de Expansión MX ChampionClub Atlético Morelia 14% · chased by Leones Negros, Club Atlético La Paz
USL League One ChampionCharlotte Independence 16% · chased by Forward Madison FC, Union Omaha
Liga MX ChampionAmérica 22% · chased by Toluca, Guadalajara
MLS MLS CupVancouver Whitecaps FC 23% · chased by Nashville SC, Inter Miami CF
NWSL ChampionGotham FC 24% · chased by Washington Spirit, Utah Royals
Serie A TitleInter 28% · chased by Frosinone, Roma
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 52 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 34 hit (65.4%). We publish the misses too:
KuPS 2–4 Mariehamn Veikkausliiga · 2026-08-23had KuPS at 79% · away win
Always Ready 2–2 Aurora División Profesional · 2026-08-27had Always Ready at 76% · draw
Universidad Católica 1–2 Ñublense Liga de Primera · 2026-08-23had Universidad Católica at 76% · away win
Blooming 1–1 Real Oruro División Profesional · 2026-08-27had Blooming at 73% · draw
Universidad de Chile 1–2 Colo Colo Liga de Primera · 2026-08-23had Universidad de Chile at 71% · away win
Audax Italiano 0–0 Unión La Calera Liga de Primera · 2026-08-22had Audax Italiano at 71% · draw
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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