Week of September 17, 2026
Milford FC’s relegation probability slides 97.4 points to 0% · updated 2026-09-17
Biggest race movement this week
Heracles Almelo Eerste Divisie · Promotion1% → 96% (+94.5)
Venezia Serie A · Relegation8% → 96% (+87.1)
Paderborn Bundesliga · Relegation18% → 100% (+81.7)
Kilmarnock Scottish Premiership · Relegation25% → 100% (+75.2)
Alloa Athletic Scottish League One · Playoffs25% → 100% (+74.8)
Milford FC Betway Premiership · Relegation97% → 0% (-97.4)
Hull Premier League · Relegation95% → 0% (-95.1)
Saint-Malo Première Ligue · Relegation86% → 6% (-79.6)
Deportivo La Guaira Liga FUTVE · Title75% → 5% (-69.9)
Vitória de Guimaraes Primeira Liga · Relegation67% → 0% (-66.8)
Closest races right now
Serie B ChampionEmpoli 12% · chased by Ascoli, Palermo
USL League One ChampionUnion Omaha 15% · chased by Charlotte Independence, Forward Madison FC
NWSL ChampionGotham FC 20% · chased by Washington Spirit, Utah Royals
MLS MLS CupNashville SC 20% · chased by Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Inter Miami CF
Liga de Expansión MX ChampionClub Atlético Morelia 21% · chased by Leones Negros, Piratas
Liga MX ChampionToluca 22% · chased by América, Guadalajara
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 42 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 28 hit (66.7%). We publish the misses too:
Arsenal 0–0 Crystal Palace Women's Super League · 2026-09-13had Arsenal at 81% · draw
Al Khaleej 1–1 Al Nassr Saudi Pro League · 2026-09-12had Al Nassr at 80% · draw
Colo Colo 1–1 Deportes Concepcion Liga de Primera · 2026-09-13had Colo Colo at 78% · draw
Heerenveen 3–1 Ajax Amsterdam Vrouwen Eredivisie · 2026-09-13had Ajax Amsterdam at 75% · home win
Xelajú MC 0–0 Cobán Imperial Liga Nacional (Guatemala) · 2026-09-11had Xelajú MC at 73% · draw
Zamora FC 1–2 Trujillanos Liga FUTVE · 2026-09-13had Zamora FC at 69% · away win
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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