Week of September 21, 2026
Milford FC’s relegation probability slides 97.4 points to 0% · updated 2026-09-21
Biggest race movement this week
Heracles Almelo Eerste Divisie · Promotion1% → 96% (+94.5)
Palermo Serie B · Title11% → 100% (+88.7)
Venezia Serie A · Relegation8% → 97% (+88.5)
Preston North End EFL Championship · Relegation16% → 100% (+83.6)
Wigan Athletic EFL League One · Relegation16% → 100% (+83.6)
Milford FC Betway Premiership · Relegation97% → 0% (-97.4)
Hull Premier League · Relegation95% → 1% (-94.3)
Saint-Malo Première Ligue · Relegation86% → 6% (-79.6)
Deportivo La Guaira Liga FUTVE · Title75% → 5% (-69.9)
Watford EFL Championship · Playoffs67% → 0% (-67.2)
Closest races right now
Serie B ChampionEmpoli 12% · chased by Ascoli, Palermo
USL League One ChampionUnion Omaha 15% · chased by Charlotte Independence, Forward Madison FC
NWSL ChampionGotham FC 19% · chased by Washington Spirit, San Diego Wave FC
MLS MLS CupNashville SC 20% · chased by Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Inter Miami CF
Liga de Expansión MX ChampionClub Atlético Morelia 21% · chased by Leones Negros, Piratas
Liga MX ChampionToluca 22% · chased by América, Guadalajara
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 44 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 31 hit (70.5%). We publish the misses too:
Arsenal 0–0 Crystal Palace Women's Super League · 2026-09-13had Arsenal at 81% · draw
Colo Colo 1–1 Deportes Concepcion Liga de Primera · 2026-09-13had Colo Colo at 78% · draw
Heerenveen 3–1 Ajax Amsterdam Vrouwen Eredivisie · 2026-09-13had Ajax Amsterdam at 75% · home win
Zamora FC 1–2 Trujillanos Liga FUTVE · 2026-09-13had Zamora FC at 69% · away win
Municipal 2–2 CD Malacateco Liga Nacional (Guatemala) · 2026-09-14had Municipal at 69% · draw
Brooklyn FC 3–2 Sporting Jax USL Super League · 2026-09-13had Sporting Jax at 68% · home win
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive dashboard →