Week of September 23, 2026
Milford FC’s relegation probability slides 97.4 points to 0% · updated 2026-09-23
Biggest race movement this week
Heracles Almelo Eerste Divisie · Promotion1% → 96% (+94.5)
Preston North End EFL Championship · Relegation16% → 100% (+83.6)
Wigan Athletic EFL League One · Relegation16% → 100% (+83.6)
Doncaster Rovers EFL League One · Relegation17% → 100% (+83.1)
Troyes Ligue 1 · Relegation12% → 95% (+82.5)
Milford FC Betway Premiership · Relegation97% → 0% (-97.4)
Hull Premier League · Title98% → 1% (-96.8)
Frosinone Serie A · Relegation87% → 0% (-86.9)
Saint-Malo Première Ligue · Relegation86% → 6% (-79.6)
Deportivo La Guaira Liga FUTVE · Title75% → 5% (-69.9)
Closest races right now
USL League One ChampionUnion Omaha 15% · chased by Charlotte Independence, Forward Madison FC
NWSL ChampionGotham FC 19% · chased by Washington Spirit, San Diego Wave FC
MLS MLS CupNashville SC 20% · chased by Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Inter Miami CF
Liga de Expansión MX ChampionClub Atlético Morelia 21% · chased by Leones Negros, Piratas
Liga MX ChampionToluca 22% · chased by América, Guadalajara
Ligue 1 TitleParis Saint Germain 36% · chased by Monaco, Lyon
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 29 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 19 hit (65.5%). We publish the misses too:
Molde 1–2 Aalesund Eliteserien · 2026-09-19had Molde at 78% · away win
Atlético-MG 1–1 Chapecoense Brasileirão Série A · 2026-09-19had Atlético-MG at 70% · draw
Rhode Island FC 1–2 Miami FC USL Championship · 2026-09-19had Rhode Island FC at 67% · away win
Harrogate 1–2 Fylde National League · 2026-09-15had Harrogate at 66% · away win
FC Sion 1–1 FC Zürich Swiss Super League · 2026-09-19had FC Sion at 65% · draw
SK Brann 2–1 Bodo/Glimt Eliteserien · 2026-09-20had Bodo/Glimt at 64% · home win
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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