Week of October 10, 2026
Milford FC’s relegation probability slides 97.4 points to 0% · updated 2026-10-10
Biggest race movement this week
Heracles Almelo Eerste Divisie · Promotion1% → 96% (+94.5)
Panathinaikos Greek Super League · Title10% → 100% (+90.3)
Palermo Serie B · Title11% → 100% (+88.7)
Wigan Athletic EFL League One · Relegation16% → 100% (+83.6)
Doncaster Rovers EFL League One · Relegation17% → 100% (+83.1)
Milford FC Betway Premiership · Relegation97% → 0% (-97.4)
Saint-Malo Première Ligue · Relegation86% → 6% (-79.6)
Hull Premier League · UCL99% → 25% (-73.5)
Deportivo La Guaira Liga FUTVE · Title75% → 5% (-69.9)
Elversberg Bundesliga · UCL87% → 18% (-68.7)
Closest races right now
USL League One ChampionUnion Omaha 15% · chased by Charlotte Independence, Forward Madison FC
MLS MLS CupNashville SC 20% · chased by Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Inter Miami CF
Liga de Expansión MX ChampionClub Atlético Morelia 21% · chased by Leones Negros, Piratas
Liga MX ChampionToluca 22% · chased by América, Guadalajara
NWSL ChampionGotham FC 25% · chased by Washington Spirit, Portland Thorns FC
USL Super League ChampionCarolina Ascent FC 37% · chased by Lexington SC, Sporting Jax
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 7 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 5 hit (71.4%). We publish the misses too:
KuPS 0–1 AC Oulu Veikkausliiga · 2026-10-08had KuPS at 74% · away win
Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen Bundesliga · 2026-10-09had Borussia Dortmund at 66% · draw
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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