CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026 forecastlive bracket

Name: CONMEBOL Libertadores season projections and match win probabilities
Creator: Entenser

updated 2026-07-28

Upcoming matches — win probabilities

Tue Aug 11Fluminense vs Independiente Rivadavia47% W · 25.2% D · 27.7% L

Wed Aug 12Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle32% W · 25.9% D · 42.1% L

Wed Aug 12Estudiantes de La Plata vs Universidad Católica55.7% W · 23.3% D · 21% L

Wed Aug 12Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteño62.1% W · 21.3% D · 16.6% L

Wed Aug 12Platense vs Coquimbo Unido45.7% W · 25.5% D · 28.8% L

Thu Aug 13Cruzeiro vs Flamengo33.9% W · 26% D · 40.1% L

Thu Aug 13Mirassol vs Liga de Quito50.5% W · 24.6% D · 24.9% L

Fri Aug 14Rosario Central vs Corinthians36.7% W · 26.1% D · 37.2% L

Competition rules

Three qualifying stages each February decide the last six group-stage places; those rounds are not modeled below (the projection starts at the group stage) · 32 clubs are drawn into 8 groups of 4 and play everyone in their group home and away · the top 2 of each group reach the round of 16, while the eight third-placed clubs transfer into the Copa Sudamericana's knockout play-off round · from the round of 16 the competition is two-legged single elimination until a one-off final at a pre-selected neutral venue · projections-only: there is no continental probabilities source, so no difference figures are shown.

How these forecasts work

Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.

Open the interactive CONMEBOL Libertadores dashboard →

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