CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026 forecastlive bracket

Name: CONMEBOL Sudamericana season projections and match win probabilities
Creator: Entenser

updated 2026-07-28

Upcoming matches — win probabilities

Tue Jul 28Tigre vs Nacional50.4% W · 24.6% D · 25% L

Wed Jul 29Santos vs UCV FC74.7% W · 16% D · 9.3% L

Wed Jul 29Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Medellín47.3% W · 25.2% D · 27.5% L

Thu Jul 30Cienciano del Cusco vs Lanús17.5% W · 21.8% D · 60.7% L

Thu Jul 30Red Bull Bragantino vs Sporting Cristal75.7% W · 15.5% D · 8.8% L

Thu Jul 30Grêmio vs Bolívar60% W · 22% D · 17.9% L

Fri Jul 31Caracas FC vs Independiente Santa Fe15.3% W · 20.6% D · 64.1% L

Fri Jul 31O'Higgins vs Boca Juniors20.1% W · 23% D · 56.9% L

Competition rules

A first qualifying stage each March decides part of the group-stage field and is not modeled below · 32 clubs are drawn into 8 groups of 4 and play everyone in their group home and away · the 8 group winners go straight to the round of 16; in the real competition the 8 runners-up first play a knockout play-off against the third-placed clubs dropping out of the Copa Libertadores — that cross-competition inflow cannot be represented inside this competition's field, so runners-up are advanced directly and their probabilities are correspondingly optimistic · two-legged single elimination from the round of 16 to a one-off neutral final · projections-only: no continental probabilities source.

How these forecasts work

Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.

Open the interactive CONMEBOL Sudamericana dashboard →

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