Entenser

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026 forecastfull forecast

updated 2026-09-11

Upcoming matches — win probabilities

Tue Sep 15Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Santa Fe46.8% W · 25.3% D · 27.9% L
Wed Sep 16São Paulo vs Boca Juniors38.2% W · 26.1% D · 35.7% L
Wed Sep 16Atlético-MG vs Santos42.2% W · 25.9% D · 31.9% L
Fri Sep 18Montevideo City Torque vs Cienciano del Cusco60.6% W · 21.8% D · 17.6% L

Competition rules

A first qualifying stage each March decides part of the group-stage field and is not modeled below · 32 clubs are drawn into 8 groups of 4 and play everyone in their group home and away · the 8 group winners go straight to the round of 16; in the real competition the 8 runners-up first play a knockout play-off against the third-placed clubs dropping out of the Copa Libertadores — that cross-competition inflow cannot be represented inside this competition's field, so runners-up are advanced directly and their probabilities are correspondingly optimistic · two-legged single elimination from the round of 16 to a one-off neutral final · projections-only: no continental probabilities source.

Follow a club through the season

Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.

Academia Puerto CabelloAlianza AtléticoAmérica de CaliAtlético-MGAudax ItalianoBarracas Central

How these forecasts work

Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.

Open the interactive CONMEBOL Sudamericana dashboard →

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