J1 League 2026 forecastlive
50% of the season played · updated 2026-07-28
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Continental | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 46 | 82.1 | 92.9% | 99.9% | 0% |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 36 | 68.6 | 4.7% | 85.7% | 0% |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 33 | 63.6 | 1% | 59.6% | 0% |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 32 | 62.1 | <1% | 45.2% | 0% |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 28 | 61.6 | <1% | 44.7% | 0% |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 27 | 59.4 | <1% | 29.9% | 0% |
| 7 | Nagoya Grampus | 29 | 56.3 | 0% | 13.5% | <1% |
| 8 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 25 | 53.7 | 0% | 7% | <1% |
| 9 | Gamba Osaka | 23 | 53.1 | 0% | 5.9% | <1% |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 24 | 51.8 | 0% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 11 | Kawasaki Frontale | 25 | 50.3 | 0% | 2.1% | 2.6% |
| 12 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 20 | 48.8 | 0% | 1.3% | 4% |
| 13 | Kashiwa Reysol | 19 | 48.8 | 0% | 1% | 4.6% |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy 1969 | 25 | 46.0 | 0% | <1% | 9.4% |
| 15 | Kyoto Sanga | 20 | 45.2 | 0% | <1% | 13.3% |
| 16 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 20 | 43.6 | 0% | <1% | 19% |
| 17 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 20 | 43.7 | 0% | <1% | 20% |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 17 | 41.1 | 0% | 0% | 37.4% |
| 19 | JEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 12 | 31.1 | 0% | 0% | 92.3% |
| 20 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 30.6 | 0% | 0% | 94.6% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Champion + next 3 reach the AFC Champions League Elite/Two (approximate) · bottom 3 relegated to J2
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive J1 League dashboard →