Entenser

J1 League 2026 forecastfull forecast

30% of the season played · updated 2026-09-11
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Champ
82.2%
Relegation
>99%
Relegation
98.6%

Projected table

#ClubPtsProjChampContinentalReleg
1Machida Zelvia1644.582.2%98.4%0%
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima1135.36.7%63.9%0%
3Kashima Antlers1233.42.7%43.6%0%
4Vissel Kobe1332.11.5%36.1%0%
5Yokohama F. Marinos1032.01.8%32.9%0%
6FC Tokyo1131.61.6%32.9%0%
7Urawa Red Diamonds931.61.2%28.4%0%
8Kashiwa Reysol1230.41.1%22.7%0%
9Kawasaki Frontale930.0<1%23.8%0%
10Cerezo Osaka1027.2<1%8.5%<1%
11Fagiano Okayama1025.6<1%4.4%<1%
12Avispa Fukuoka423.40%1.8%1.8%
13Gamba Osaka622.30%1%1.8%
14Nagoya Grampus621.80%<1%2.8%
15Kyoto Sanga521.50%<1%2.7%
16JEF United Ichihara-Chiba019.20%<1%8.3%
17Mito Hollyhock018.80%<1%9.4%
18Shimizu S-Pulse418.40%<1%10%
19V-Varen Nagasaki416.10%0%27.2%
20Tokyo Verdy 1969314.60%0%37%
21Mito99.00%0%98.6%
22Chiba33.00%0%>99%

Upcoming matches — win probabilities

Sat Sep 12Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka55.2% W · 26.8% D · 18.1% L
Sat Sep 12Mito Hollyhock vs Kawasaki Frontale36.7% W · 25% D · 38.4% L
Sat Sep 12Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka27% W · 33.4% D · 39.6% L
Sat Sep 12Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo32.5% W · 26.5% D · 41% L
Sat Sep 12Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos57.7% W · 23.4% D · 18.9% L
Sat Sep 12V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus33.1% W · 24.1% D · 42.8% L
Sun Sep 13Urawa Red Diamonds vs Fagiano Okayama51.5% W · 24% D · 24.5% L
Sun Sep 13Tokyo Verdy 1969 vs JEF United Ichihara-Chiba20.5% W · 35.9% D · 43.6% L

Competition rules

Champion + next 3 reach the AFC Champions League Elite/Two (approximate) · bottom 3 relegated to J2

Follow a club through the season

Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.

Machida ZelviaVissel KobeKashima AntlersKashiwa ReysolSanfrecce HiroshimaFC Tokyo

How these forecasts work

Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.

Open the interactive J1 League dashboard →

More leagues

Chinese Super LeagueSaudi Pro LeagueA-League MenThai League 1K League 1Indian Super LeagueA-League WomenAll 78 leagues