J1 League 2026 forecastfull forecast
30% of the season played · updated 2026-09-11
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Continental | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 16 | 44.5 | 82.2% | 98.4% | 0% |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 35.3 | 6.7% | 63.9% | 0% |
| 3 | Kashima Antlers | 12 | 33.4 | 2.7% | 43.6% | 0% |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 32.1 | 1.5% | 36.1% | 0% |
| 5 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | 32.0 | 1.8% | 32.9% | 0% |
| 6 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 31.6 | 1.6% | 32.9% | 0% |
| 7 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 31.6 | 1.2% | 28.4% | 0% |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 30.4 | 1.1% | 22.7% | 0% |
| 9 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 30.0 | <1% | 23.8% | 0% |
| 10 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 27.2 | <1% | 8.5% | <1% |
| 11 | Fagiano Okayama | 10 | 25.6 | <1% | 4.4% | <1% |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 4 | 23.4 | 0% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| 13 | Gamba Osaka | 6 | 22.3 | 0% | 1% | 1.8% |
| 14 | Nagoya Grampus | 6 | 21.8 | 0% | <1% | 2.8% |
| 15 | Kyoto Sanga | 5 | 21.5 | 0% | <1% | 2.7% |
| 16 | JEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 0 | 19.2 | 0% | <1% | 8.3% |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 0 | 18.8 | 0% | <1% | 9.4% |
| 18 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 4 | 18.4 | 0% | <1% | 10% |
| 19 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 4 | 16.1 | 0% | 0% | 27.2% |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy 1969 | 3 | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | 37% |
| 21 | Mito | 9 | 9.0 | 0% | 0% | 98.6% |
| 22 | Chiba | 3 | 3.0 | 0% | 0% | >99% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Champion + next 3 reach the AFC Champions League Elite/Two (approximate) · bottom 3 relegated to J2
Follow a club through the season
Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive J1 League dashboard →