Entenser

Ligue 1 2026-27 forecastpre-season

Pre-season projection — schedule out, no matches played yet; probabilities are statistical priors · updated 2026-07-27
Title
8.4%
Title
3.9%
Relegation
57.3%
Relegation
48%

Projected table

#ClubPtsProjTitleUCLEuropaConfReleg
1Paris Saint Germain073.670.5%96.4%1.6%<1%0%
2Lens058.78.4%54.5%10.1%8.4%<1%
3Lille055.03.8%38.2%11.1%10.1%<1%
4Strasbourg054.63.9%37.1%10.7%10.1%1.2%
5Monaco053.53%33.1%10.3%9.7%1.6%
6Lyon052.82.5%30.7%9.5%9.5%1.6%
7Rennes052.02.3%27.6%9.5%9.4%2.3%
8Paris FC051.72%25.9%9.4%9.4%2.1%
9Marseille051.62.2%26%9.4%9.1%2.2%
10Toulouse046.0<1%10.9%5.5%7%7%
11Lorient044.6<1%9%4.8%5.7%9%
12Auxerre043.1<1%6%4.1%4.9%11.4%
13Nice036.70%1.5%1.1%1.7%30.7%
14Le Mans034.90%1%<1%1.2%38.6%
15Brest034.40%<1%<1%1.1%40.8%
16Le Havre033.60%<1%<1%<1%44.9%
17Troyes033.00%<1%<1%<1%48%
18Angers030.90%<1%<1%<1%57.3%

Upcoming matches — win probabilities

Fri Aug 21Marseille vs Strasbourg45.1% W · 23.5% D · 31.4% L
Sat Aug 22Lens vs Auxerre57.9% W · 24.9% D · 17.2% L
Sat Aug 22Le Mans vs Brest37% W · 28.1% D · 34.9% L
Sat Aug 22Nice vs Lorient28.2% W · 27.7% D · 44.1% L
Sat Aug 22Toulouse vs Lyon34.7% W · 27% D · 38.4% L
Sat Aug 22Troyes vs Paris FC25.9% W · 27.7% D · 46.4% L
Sun Aug 23Angers vs Lille16.1% W · 31.4% D · 52.5% L
Sun Aug 23Le Havre vs Monaco28.8% W · 26.7% D · 44.5% L

Competition rules

Top 4 qualify for the Champions League · bottom 2 relegated, 16th plays a barrage vs the Ligue 2 playoff winner

How these forecasts work

Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.

Open the interactive Ligue 1 dashboard →

More leagues

Ligue 2Première LigueAll 78 leagues