Ligue 1 2026-27 forecastpre-season
Pre-season projection — schedule out, no matches played yet; probabilities are statistical priors · updated 2026-07-27
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Title | UCL | Europa | Conf | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 0 | 73.6 | 70.5% | 96.4% | 1.6% | <1% | 0% |
| 2 | Lens | 0 | 58.7 | 8.4% | 54.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | <1% |
| 3 | Lille | 0 | 55.0 | 3.8% | 38.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | <1% |
| 4 | Strasbourg | 0 | 54.6 | 3.9% | 37.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 1.2% |
| 5 | Monaco | 0 | 53.5 | 3% | 33.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 1.6% |
| 6 | Lyon | 0 | 52.8 | 2.5% | 30.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 1.6% |
| 7 | Rennes | 0 | 52.0 | 2.3% | 27.6% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 2.3% |
| 8 | Paris FC | 0 | 51.7 | 2% | 25.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 2.1% |
| 9 | Marseille | 0 | 51.6 | 2.2% | 26% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.2% |
| 10 | Toulouse | 0 | 46.0 | <1% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 7% | 7% |
| 11 | Lorient | 0 | 44.6 | <1% | 9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 9% |
| 12 | Auxerre | 0 | 43.1 | <1% | 6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 11.4% |
| 13 | Nice | 0 | 36.7 | 0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 30.7% |
| 14 | Le Mans | 0 | 34.9 | 0% | 1% | <1% | 1.2% | 38.6% |
| 15 | Brest | 0 | 34.4 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1.1% | 40.8% |
| 16 | Le Havre | 0 | 33.6 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 44.9% |
| 17 | Troyes | 0 | 33.0 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 48% |
| 18 | Angers | 0 | 30.9 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 57.3% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Top 4 qualify for the Champions League · bottom 2 relegated, 16th plays a barrage vs the Ligue 2 playoff winner
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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