National League 2026-27 forecastpre-season
Pre-season projection — schedule out, no matches played yet; probabilities are statistical priors · updated 2026-07-27
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Auto | Playoff | Promoted | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlisle United | 0 | 90.3 | 24.5% | 61.7% | 43.8% | <1% |
| 2 | Boreham Wood | 0 | 88.6 | 20.6% | 62.4% | 37.5% | <1% |
| 3 | Southend United | 0 | 88.4 | 20.1% | 62.7% | 37.9% | <1% |
| 4 | Forest Green Rovers | 0 | 85.0 | 14.2% | 61.9% | 28.4% | <1% |
| 5 | Woking | 0 | 78.1 | 6.1% | 52.5% | 14.4% | <1% |
| 6 | Scunthorpe United | 0 | 72.8 | 3% | 41% | 7.5% | 2.3% |
| 7 | Boston United | 0 | 70.8 | 2.2% | 36.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 0 | 70.7 | 2.4% | 35.9% | 6.1% | 3.4% |
| 9 | Tamworth | 0 | 68.5 | 1.7% | 31% | 4.4% | 4.5% |
| 10 | Solihull Moors | 0 | 68.2 | 1.7% | 29.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 11 | Altrincham | 0 | 65.6 | <1% | 24.6% | 2.6% | 6.2% |
| 12 | Wealdstone | 0 | 64.6 | <1% | 22.9% | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| 13 | Hartlepool United | 0 | 60.9 | <1% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 10.8% |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 0 | 56.6 | <1% | 10.3% | <1% | 17.5% |
| 15 | Sutton United | 0 | 55.8 | <1% | 9.1% | <1% | 19% |
| 16 | Eastleigh | 0 | 55.1 | <1% | 8.5% | <1% | 20.3% |
| 17 | Gateshead | 0 | 54.6 | <1% | 8.3% | <1% | 21.4% |
| 18 | Yeovil Town | 0 | 53.8 | <1% | 7% | <1% | 22.6% |
| 19 | Harrogate | 0 | 53.7 | <1% | 7% | <1% | 23.2% |
| 20 | Barrow | 0 | 53.3 | <1% | 6.4% | <1% | 24.2% |
| 21 | AFC Hornchurch | 0 | 43.1 | 0% | 1.3% | 0% | 51.7% |
| 22 | AFC Fylde | 0 | 43.1 | 0% | 1.4% | 0% | 51.9% |
| 23 | Kidderminster Harriers | 0 | 43.0 | 0% | 1.1% | 0% | 52.7% |
| 24 | Worthing | 0 | 43.0 | 0% | 1.1% | 0% | 52.3% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Champion promoted automatically · 2nd–7th promotion playoff, winner also promoted · bottom 4 relegated to National League North/South (not modeled)
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive National League dashboard →