EFL Championship 2026-27 forecastpre-season
Pre-season projection — schedule out, no matches played yet; probabilities are statistical priors · updated 2026-07-27
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Auto | Playoff | Promoted | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 0 | 85.3 | 44.8% | 32.4% | 57.8% | <1% |
| 2 | West Ham United | 0 | 78.0 | 25.4% | 34.4% | 37.1% | <1% |
| 3 | Lincoln | 0 | 76.4 | 21.6% | 33.3% | 31.9% | 1.2% |
| 4 | Millwall | 0 | 76.3 | 21% | 34.1% | 31.8% | 1.2% |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 0 | 76.1 | 20.9% | 33.8% | 31% | 1.2% |
| 6 | Norwich City | 0 | 70.8 | 11.9% | 27.5% | 18.8% | 2.7% |
| 7 | Derby County | 0 | 68.3 | 9.1% | 23.8% | 14.8% | 3.9% |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 0 | 66.1 | 7.2% | 21% | 11.6% | 5.7% |
| 9 | Wrexham | 0 | 64.7 | 6.2% | 19.1% | 9.8% | 7.1% |
| 10 | Swansea City | 0 | 63.7 | 5% | 17.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| 11 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0 | 63.3 | 4.6% | 17.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% |
| 12 | Birmingham City | 0 | 62.1 | 3.7% | 15.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% |
| 13 | Cardiff | 0 | 60.2 | 3% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 11% |
| 14 | Bristol City | 0 | 60.1 | 3.1% | 12.8% | 5.4% | 11.5% |
| 15 | West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 58.7 | 2.5% | 10.8% | 4.3% | 12.7% |
| 16 | Burnley | 0 | 58.0 | 2.2% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 13.7% |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 0 | 55.2 | 1.5% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 19.5% |
| 18 | Queens Park Rangers | 0 | 54.4 | 1.6% | 7% | 2.5% | 21.3% |
| 19 | Blackburn Rovers | 0 | 53.8 | 1.1% | 5.8% | 2% | 20.8% |
| 20 | Preston North End | 0 | 53.5 | 1.2% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 22.9% |
| 21 | Bolton | 0 | 52.8 | <1% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 23.5% |
| 22 | Stoke City | 0 | 50.7 | <1% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 28.4% |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic | 0 | 50.5 | <1% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 29.2% |
| 24 | Watford | 0 | 47.5 | <1% | 2.8% | <1% | 37.5% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Top 2 promoted automatically · 3–6 promotion playoff, winner also promoted · bottom 3 relegated
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive EFL Championship dashboard →