Premier League 2026-27 forecastpre-season
Pre-season projection — schedule out, no matches played yet; probabilities are statistical priors · updated 2026-07-27
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Title | UCL | Europa | Conf | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 0 | 76.2 | 46.3% | 93.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 0 | 73.4 | 31.9% | 89.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0% |
| 3 | Manchester United | 0 | 64.1 | 8.3% | 60.5% | 8% | 6.8% | <1% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 0 | 59.3 | 3.5% | 41.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 0 | 56.4 | 1.9% | 31.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest | 0 | 56.2 | 2% | 30.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 3.3% |
| 7 | Brighton | 0 | 54.2 | 1.1% | 24% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 0 | 53.6 | 1.2% | 22.2% | 7.3% | 7% | 5.3% |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 0 | 52.7 | <1% | 19.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% |
| 10 | Brentford | 0 | 52.1 | <1% | 17.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 0 | 50.9 | <1% | 15.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.7% |
| 12 | Tottenham | 0 | 49.9 | <1% | 12.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 10.6% |
| 13 | Leeds | 0 | 48.5 | <1% | 10% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 13.2% |
| 14 | Everton | 0 | 48.0 | <1% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 5% | 13.9% |
| 15 | Coventry City | 0 | 45.9 | <1% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 19.8% |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 0 | 44.1 | <1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 24.4% |
| 17 | Fulham | 0 | 43.8 | <1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 25.3% |
| 18 | Sunderland | 0 | 43.8 | <1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 25.2% |
| 19 | Ipswich | 0 | 42.4 | 0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 30.4% |
| 20 | Hull | 0 | 23.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 95.4% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Top 5 qualify for the Champions League (2025-26 coefficient allocation) · bottom 3 relegated
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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