Primeira Liga 2026-27 forecastpre-season
Pre-season projection — schedule out, no matches played yet; probabilities are statistical priors · updated 2026-07-27
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Title | UCL | Europa | Conf | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 0 | 78.9 | 48.4% | 76.6% | 14% | 6% | 0% |
| 2 | Benfica | 0 | 75.6 | 31% | 62.6% | 20.8% | 9.6% | 0% |
| 3 | FC Porto | 0 | 70.5 | 14.8% | 38.2% | 28.2% | 16.8% | 0% |
| 4 | Braga | 0 | 62.5 | 4.1% | 13.8% | 17.4% | 23.6% | <1% |
| 5 | FC Famalicao | 0 | 55.5 | <1% | 4.7% | 8% | 14.8% | 1% |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 47.0 | <1% | <1% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| 7 | Estoril | 0 | 46.6 | <1% | <1% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% |
| 8 | Arouca | 0 | 45.6 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4.7% | 7.3% |
| 9 | Santa Clara | 0 | 44.6 | <1% | <1% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 8.1% |
| 10 | Vitória de Guimaraes | 0 | 42.3 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 2.6% | 12.3% |
| 11 | C.D. Nacional | 0 | 42.2 | <1% | <1% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 12% |
| 12 | Alverca | 0 | 39.2 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1.4% | 18.3% |
| 13 | Moreirense | 0 | 37.4 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 22.9% |
| 14 | Estrela | 0 | 37.0 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 24.2% |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 0 | 34.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 31.3% |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 0 | 33.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 36.9% |
| 17 | Académico de Viseu | 0 | 28.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 56.6% |
| 18 | Maritimo | 0 | 28.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 56.8% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Top 2 qualify for the Champions League · bottom 2 relegated, 16th plays a barrage vs Liga Portugal 2
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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