Eerste Divisie 2026-27 forecastpre-season
Pre-season projection — schedule out, no matches played yet; probabilities are statistical priors · updated 2026-07-27 · also known as Keuken Kampioen Divisie
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Auto | Playoff | Promoted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De Graafschap | 0 | 69.6 | 45.1% | 45% | 59.6% |
| 2 | RKC Waalwijk | 0 | 67.9 | 39.1% | 47.6% | 53.3% |
| 3 | Almere City | 0 | 66.3 | 33% | 50.1% | 46.3% |
| 4 | Vitesse | 0 | 65.1 | 28.2% | 52.4% | 41.6% |
| 5 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 0 | 58.0 | 11.2% | 47.1% | 19.1% |
| 6 | FC Den Bosch | 0 | 54.7 | 6.7% | 39.3% | 12% |
| 7 | Jong PSV | 0 | 53.6 | 5.5% | 36.1% | 10% |
| 8 | TOP Oss | 0 | 53.0 | 5.1% | 34.5% | 9.4% |
| 9 | FC Dordrecht | 0 | 52.7 | 4.6% | 33.8% | 8.6% |
| 10 | Jong FC Utrecht | 0 | 52.6 | 4.6% | 33.4% | 8.2% |
| 11 | Jong AZ | 0 | 51.5 | 3.9% | 29.8% | 7.1% |
| 12 | VVV-Venlo | 0 | 51.4 | 3.7% | 30.2% | 6.9% |
| 13 | FC Emmen | 0 | 48.8 | 2.1% | 23.7% | 4.1% |
| 14 | FC Eindhoven | 0 | 48.1 | 1.9% | 21.2% | 3.7% |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 0 | 46.3 | 1.3% | 17.2% | 2.5% |
| 16 | NAC Breda | 0 | 46.3 | 1.3% | 17.4% | 2.5% |
| 17 | Heracles Almelo | 0 | 46.2 | 1.3% | 17.2% | 2.5% |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 0 | 43.2 | <1% | 10.9% | 1.3% |
| 19 | Helmond Sport | 0 | 42.1 | <1% | 8.9% | <1% |
| 20 | MVV Maastricht | 0 | 37.6 | <1% | 4.1% | <1% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Champion and runner-up promoted automatically to the Eredivisie · 3rd-8th enter a promotion playoff whose winner faces the Eredivisie's 16th-placed team for the final promotion spot (that cross-league leg isn't modeled — the playoff-band winner is shown directly as promoted) · no fixed automatic relegation (licensing-based, not modeled) · goals-only (no xG source for this tier)
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive Eerste Divisie dashboard →