Eerste Divisie 2026 forecastfull forecast
17% of the season played · updated 2026-09-15 · also known as Keuken Kampioen Divisie
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Auto | Playoff | Promoted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 18 | 83.8 | 86.1% | 95.8% | 4.1% | 97.9% |
| 2 | Almere City | 13 | 67.2 | 7.6% | 42.9% | 49.9% | 58% |
| 3 | FC Volendam | 9 | 59.6 | 1.6% | 13.1% | 59.7% | 26.9% |
| 4 | Vitesse | 10 | 58.6 | 1.2% | 10.2% | 57.9% | 21.3% |
| 5 | VVV-Venlo | 12 | 58.1 | 1.1% | 9.9% | 57.5% | 20.2% |
| 6 | RKC Waalwijk | 10 | 58.1 | 1% | 9.6% | 57.3% | 20.9% |
| 7 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 11 | 55.1 | <1% | 4.8% | 48.5% | 12.1% |
| 8 | FC Emmen | 12 | 54.2 | <1% | 4.2% | 44.8% | 9.8% |
| 9 | Jong AZ | 10 | 51.8 | <1% | 2.2% | 35.7% | 7% |
| 10 | Jong PSV | 12 | 51.7 | <1% | 1.9% | 34.3% | 6% |
| 11 | MVV Maastricht | 13 | 50.4 | <1% | 1.4% | 29.6% | 4.1% |
| 12 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 48.4 | <1% | 1% | 23.7% | 3.4% |
| 13 | De Graafschap | 4 | 48.7 | <1% | <1% | 23.5% | 3.9% |
| 14 | FC Den Bosch | 4 | 47.5 | <1% | <1% | 19.8% | 2.9% |
| 15 | FC Eindhoven | 7 | 45.9 | 0% | <1% | 15.1% | 1.7% |
| 16 | Jong FC Utrecht | 7 | 44.9 | 0% | <1% | 12.2% | 1.5% |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 7 | 43.6 | 0% | <1% | 10.2% | 1.1% |
| 18 | TOP Oss | 3 | 41.4 | 0% | <1% | 6.6% | <1% |
| 19 | FC Dordrecht | 4 | 40.9 | 0% | <1% | 5.7% | <1% |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 7 | 39.9 | 0% | 0% | 3.7% | <1% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Champion and runner-up promoted automatically to the Eredivisie · 3rd-8th enter a promotion playoff whose winner faces the Eredivisie's 16th-placed team for the final promotion spot (that cross-league leg isn't modeled — the playoff-band winner is shown directly as promoted) · no fixed automatic relegation (licensing-based, not modeled) · goals-only (no xG source for this tier)
Follow a club through the season
Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive Eerste Divisie dashboard →