Categoría Primera A 2026 forecastlive
54% of the season played · updated 2026-07-28
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Continental | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 40 | 77.1 | 84.2% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 | Atlético Junior | 35 | 66.5 | 5.8% | 96.9% | 0% |
| 3 | América de Cali | 36 | 65.7 | 4.6% | 96.1% | 0% |
| 4 | Deportes Tolima | 34 | 64.0 | 2.4% | 92.7% | 0% |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 36 | 62.8 | 2% | 89.3% | 0% |
| 6 | Independiente Santa Fe | 29 | 59.5 | <1% | 71.3% | 0% |
| 7 | Deportivo Pasto | 34 | 59.3 | <1% | 68.4% | 0% |
| 8 | Independiente Medellín | 29 | 57.4 | <1% | 54.4% | 0% |
| 9 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 26 | 56.1 | <1% | 48.2% | 0% |
| 10 | Deportivo Cali | 30 | 54.1 | 0% | 30.9% | 0% |
| 11 | Millonarios | 26 | 53.0 | 0% | 26.4% | 0% |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 29 | 52.2 | 0% | 17.7% | 0% |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogotá | 28 | 47.5 | 0% | 4.4% | <1% |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 23 | 45.3 | 0% | 1.8% | <1% |
| 15 | Llaneros FC | 25 | 45.1 | 0% | 1.6% | <1% |
| 16 | Alianza FC | 18 | 37.9 | 0% | 0% | 11.5% |
| 17 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 18 | 34.9 | 0% | 0% | 26.7% |
| 18 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 16 | 34.3 | 0% | 0% | 34.8% |
| 19 | Boyacá Chicó FC | 17 | 34.0 | 0% | 0% | 36.9% |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 10 | 26.6 | 0% | 0% | 89% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Season splits into Apertura and Clausura round-robin tournaments, each followed by an 8-team playoff (not modeled here — this is a combined single table of all matches played) · the two tournament champions plus the next 2 in the aggregate table reach the Copa Libertadores, the next 3 reach the Copa Sudamericana (approximate) · bottom 2 relegated by a 3-year rolling average table (not modeled here) · calendar-year season
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive Categoría Primera A dashboard →