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División de Honor 2026 forecastfull forecast

70% of the season played · updated 2026-09-11
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Champ
96%
Relegation
>99%
Relegation
55.2%

Projected table

#ClubPtsProjChampContinentalReleg
1Club Olimpia6587.996%>99%0%
2Nacional Asunción5476.43.4%>99%0%
3Cerro Porteño5171.8<1%>99%0%
4Libertad5070.6<1%>99%0%
5Sportivo Trinidense4667.10%99.7%0%
6Sportivo Ameliano4664.20%99%0%
7Guaraní4260.80%94.5%0%
82 de Mayo4359.30%88.4%0%
9Deportivo Recoleta3551.40%17.2%3.5%
10Sportivo Luqueño3044.10%<1%41.3%
11Rubio Ñú3143.40%<1%55.2%
12Sportivo San Lorenzo1623.90%0%>99%

Upcoming matches — win probabilities

Fri Sep 11Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo San Lorenzo65% W · 25.1% D · 9.9% L
Fri Sep 112 de Mayo vs Libertad31.7% W · 30.9% D · 37.5% L
Sat Sep 12Guaraní vs Cerro Porteño34.7% W · 34.2% D · 31.2% L
Sat Sep 12Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Trinidense29.8% W · 26.2% D · 44% L
Sun Sep 13Club Olimpia vs Sportivo Luqueño63.5% W · 22.1% D · 14.4% L
Sun Sep 13Rubio Ñú vs Nacional Asunción18.2% W · 28.9% D · 52.9% L
Fri Sep 18Sportivo Trinidense vs Guaraní41% W · 32.3% D · 26.7% L
Fri Sep 18Nacional Asunción vs 2 de Mayo50% W · 31.2% D · 18.8% L

Competition rules

Paraguay holds 4 Copa Libertadores and 4 Copa Sudamericana berths — 8 of 12 clubs qualify for continental football, so the green line sits unusually deep · the Apertura and Clausura champions take the two automatic Libertadores places, the rest come off the aggregate table (not modeled here — this is a plain combined-season table) · bottom 2 relegated on a 3-year rolling average (not modeled) · calendar-year season

Follow a club through the season

Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.

Club OlimpiaNacional AsunciónCerro PorteñoLibertadSportivo TrinidenseSportivo Ameliano

How these forecasts work

Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.

Open the interactive División de Honor dashboard →

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