Liga 1 2026 forecastlive
56% of the season played · updated 2026-07-28
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Continental | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 44 | 72.6 | 93.1% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 | Universitario | 35 | 61.1 | 4% | 99.9% | 0% |
| 3 | Melgar | 34 | 59.1 | 1.9% | 99.6% | 0% |
| 4 | Los Chankas | 37 | 56.4 | <1% | 98.2% | 0% |
| 5 | Cienciano del Cusco | 33 | 54.3 | <1% | 95.2% | 0% |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 30 | 53.9 | <1% | 93.2% | 0% |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 49.9 | 0% | 79.3% | 0% |
| 8 | Alianza Atlético | 24 | 45.7 | 0% | 45.9% | <1% |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 22 | 45.4 | 0% | 41% | <1% |
| 10 | Comerciantes Unidos | 23 | 41.7 | 0% | 15.1% | 3.9% |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 23 | 40.8 | 0% | 11.1% | 5.9% |
| 12 | ADT | 20 | 39.2 | 0% | 7% | 11.4% |
| 13 | Sport Huancayo | 19 | 38.4 | 0% | 5% | 18.9% |
| 14 | Deportivo Moquegua | 20 | 37.4 | 0% | 2.9% | 22.1% |
| 15 | Atlético Grau | 19 | 36.9 | 0% | 2.5% | 23.5% |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 18 | 36.7 | 0% | 2.4% | 25.2% |
| 17 | Juan Pablo II | 20 | 35.0 | 0% | 1% | 43.7% |
| 18 | UTC | 19 | 34.6 | 0% | <1% | 43.8% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Top 4 of the season's cumulative table reach the Copa Libertadores, next 4 reach the Copa Sudamericana · bottom 2 of the cumulative table relegated · the season is actually split into Apertura/Clausura tournaments plus a playoff for the title (not modeled here — this is a combined single table, matching how the cumulative/continental and relegation table is officially built) · calendar-year season
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive Liga 1 dashboard →