Liga 1 2026 forecastfull forecast
76% of the season played · updated 2026-09-15
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Continental | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 53 | 67.7 | 84.5% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 | Universitario | 49 | 62.4 | 12% | >99% | 0% |
| 3 | Melgar | 45 | 58.4 | 1.7% | 99.7% | 0% |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 45 | 58.5 | 1.6% | 99.7% | 0% |
| 5 | Cienciano del Cusco | 40 | 53.8 | <1% | 93.1% | 0% |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 42 | 54.0 | <1% | 91.2% | 0% |
| 7 | Sporting Cristal | 35 | 49.2 | 0% | 60.9% | 0% |
| 8 | Los Chankas | 41 | 49.2 | 0% | 51.5% | 0% |
| 9 | Alianza Atlético | 37 | 48.6 | 0% | 51.1% | 0% |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 37 | 48.0 | 0% | 42.1% | 0% |
| 11 | Atlético Grau | 32 | 42.7 | 0% | 4.7% | <1% |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 32 | 42.4 | 0% | 4.1% | <1% |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 30 | 39.7 | 0% | 1% | <1% |
| 14 | Juan Pablo II | 31 | 40.1 | 0% | <1% | 1.3% |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 27 | 37.1 | 0% | <1% | 6.5% |
| 16 | Deportivo Moquegua | 25 | 33.7 | 0% | 0% | 34.3% |
| 17 | ADT | 22 | 31.3 | 0% | 0% | 61.1% |
| 18 | UTC | 20 | 27.0 | 0% | 0% | 95.6% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Top 4 of the season's cumulative table reach the Copa Libertadores, next 4 reach the Copa Sudamericana · bottom 2 of the cumulative table relegated · the season is actually split into Apertura/Clausura tournaments plus a playoff for the title (not modeled here — this is a combined single table, matching how the cumulative/continental and relegation table is officially built) · calendar-year season
Follow a club through the season
Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive Liga 1 dashboard →