Primera División 2026 forecastlive
95% of the season played · updated 2026-07-28
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Continental | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 40 | 42.1 | 74.4% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 | Peñarol | 40 | 41.8 | 23.8% | >99% | 0% |
| 3 | Racing (Montevideo) | 38 | 39.8 | 1.8% | >99% | 0% |
| 4 | Montevideo City Torque | 35 | 36.8 | 0% | 81.2% | 0% |
| 5 | Albion FC | 33 | 34.9 | 0% | 18.8% | 0% |
| 6 | Central Español Fútbol Club | 32 | 33.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | Nacional | 30 | 32.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | Montevideo Wanderers | 30 | 30.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | Liverpool | 28 | 29.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | Cerro Largo | 28 | 28.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 24 | 25.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | Danubio | 22 | 22.9 | 0% | 0% | 2.1% |
| 13 | Juventud | 22 | 22.7 | 0% | 0% | 7.1% |
| 14 | Boston River | 22 | 23.0 | 0% | 0% | 10.5% |
| 15 | Cerro | 20 | 21.0 | 0% | 0% | 80.3% |
| 16 | Progreso | 16 | 16.7 | 0% | 0% | >99% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Season combines Apertura, Intermedio, and Clausura phases into an annual aggregate table (not modeled here — this is a plain combined-season table) · champion + runner-up + next 2 reach the Copa Libertadores or Copa Sudamericana (approximate — some spots depend on the separate Copa AUF Uruguay and Intermedio results, not modeled) · bottom 2 relegated by a 2-year rolling average table (not modeled here) · calendar-year season
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive Primera División dashboard →