Entenser

Primera División 2026 forecastfull forecast

96% of the season played · updated 2026-09-11
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Champ
89%
Relegation
>99%
Relegation
>99%

Projected table

#ClubPtsProjChampContinentalReleg
1Peñarol5053.889%>99%0%
2Deportivo Maldonado4950.84.4%>99%0%
3Racing (Montevideo)4950.72.4%>99%0%
4Montevideo City Torque4749.64.2%>99%0%
5Liverpool4243.30%0%0%
6Nacional4041.40%0%0%
7Montevideo Wanderers4041.30%0%0%
8Central Español Fútbol Club3738.10%0%0%
9Albion FC3434.60%0%0%
10Cerro Largo3233.60%0%0%
11Juventud3132.80%0%0%
12Cerro3031.30%0%0%
13Boston River3031.00%0%0%
14Defensor Sporting2930.00%0%0%
15Danubio2525.90%0%>99%
16Progreso2223.30%0%>99%

Upcoming matches — win probabilities

Sat Sep 12Racing (Montevideo) vs Boston River47% W · 31.1% D · 21.8% L
Sat Sep 12Montevideo Wanderers vs Nacional34.7% W · 26.1% D · 39.2% L
Sat Sep 12Cerro Largo vs Central Español Fútbol Club43.6% W · 30.3% D · 26.1% L
Sun Sep 13Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado22.6% W · 28.5% D · 48.9% L
Sun Sep 13Progreso vs Cerro33.9% W · 33.1% D · 33% L
Sun Sep 13Juventud vs Danubio49% W · 29.8% D · 21.3% L
Sun Sep 13Peñarol vs Albion FC66.8% W · 20% D · 13.2% L
Mon Sep 14Montevideo City Torque vs Liverpool39.3% W · 26% D · 34.7% L

Competition rules

Season combines Apertura, Intermedio, and Clausura phases into an annual aggregate table (not modeled here — this is a plain combined-season table) · champion + runner-up + next 2 reach the Copa Libertadores or Copa Sudamericana (approximate — some spots depend on the separate Copa AUF Uruguay and Intermedio results, not modeled) · bottom 2 relegated by a 2-year rolling average table (not modeled here) · calendar-year season

Follow a club through the season

Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.

PeñarolDeportivo MaldonadoRacing (Montevideo)Montevideo City TorqueLiverpoolNacional

How these forecasts work

Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.

Open the interactive Primera División dashboard →

More leagues

Brasileirão Série ALiga Profesional ArgentinaLiga de PrimeraCategoría Primera ALiga 1Brasileirão Série BPrimera NacionalLigaPro Serie ADivisión de HonorDivisión ProfesionalLiga FUTVEAll 78 leagues