LigaPro Serie A 2026 forecastfull forecast
77% of the season played · updated 2026-09-15
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Continental | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 74 | 89.6 | >99% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 | Universidad Católica (Quito) | 51 | 65.2 | 0% | >99% | 0% |
| 3 | Macará | 51 | 64.0 | 0% | 99.9% | 0% |
| 4 | Aucas | 50 | 62.3 | 0% | 99.7% | 0% |
| 5 | Liga de Quito | 46 | 59.3 | 0% | 97.2% | 0% |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 44 | 56.6 | 0% | 89.2% | 0% |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa | 38 | 52.6 | 0% | 51.5% | <1% |
| 8 | Libertad (Ecuador) | 41 | 49.5 | 0% | 17.5% | <1% |
| 9 | Deportivo Cuenca | 36 | 49.6 | 0% | 19.6% | 2.7% |
| 10 | Leones | 39 | 47.2 | 0% | 5.8% | 2% |
| 11 | Guayaquil City FC | 39 | 47.1 | 0% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| 12 | Orense | 33 | 47.2 | 0% | 8.4% | 7.5% |
| 13 | Emelec | 39 | 46.4 | 0% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 32 | 45.0 | 0% | 3% | 21% |
| 15 | Delfín | 28 | 40.8 | 0% | <1% | 62.2% |
| 16 | Manta F.C. | 21 | 33.3 | 0% | 0% | 98.1% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
The real 2026 format is a 30-round first stage followed by two hexagonals and a quadrangular that decide the title, 3 Copa Libertadores berths and 4 Copa Sudamericana berths (not modeled here — this is the combined single-season table, with the real berth count as the cut line) · bottom 2 relegated · calendar-year season
Follow a club through the season
Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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