LigaPro Serie A 2026 forecastlive
73% of the season played · updated 2026-07-28
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Continental | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 55 | 68.6 | >99% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 | Universidad Católica (Quito) | 36 | 48.3 | 0% | 97.5% | 0% |
| 3 | Macará | 35 | 46.6 | 0% | 92.8% | 0% |
| 4 | Barcelona SC | 34 | 45.6 | 0% | 87.9% | 0% |
| 5 | Aucas | 35 | 45.7 | 0% | 86.7% | 0% |
| 6 | Liga de Quito | 32 | 44.4 | 0% | 78.6% | 0% |
| 7 | Leones | 31 | 42.7 | 0% | 61.2% | <1% |
| 8 | Deportivo Cuenca | 31 | 41.3 | 0% | 39.6% | <1% |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 28 | 38.6 | 0% | 18% | 1.8% |
| 10 | Emelec | 28 | 38.1 | 0% | 12.6% | 2.6% |
| 11 | Libertad (Ecuador) | 27 | 37.4 | 0% | 10.2% | 3.8% |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 26 | 35.9 | 0% | 5.5% | 8.7% |
| 13 | Orense | 26 | 35.9 | 0% | 5.5% | 9.5% |
| 14 | Mushuc Runa | 25 | 35.2 | 0% | 3.5% | 14.5% |
| 15 | Delfín | 23 | 31.6 | 0% | <1% | 59% |
| 16 | Manta F.C. | 14 | 22.3 | 0% | 0% | 99.7% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
The real 2026 format is a 30-round first stage followed by two hexagonals and a quadrangular that decide the title, 3 Copa Libertadores berths and 4 Copa Sudamericana berths (not modeled here — this is the combined single-season table, with the real berth count as the cut line) · bottom 2 relegated · calendar-year season
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive LigaPro Serie A dashboard →