Entenser

LigaPro Serie A 2026 forecastfull forecast

97% of the season played · updated 2026-09-11
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Relegation
>99%
Relegation
83.3%

Projected table

#ClubPtsProjChampContinentalReleg
1Independiente del Valle7172.5>99%>99%0%
2Aucas4950.50%>99%0%
3Universidad Católica (Quito)4849.90%>99%0%
4Macará4849.70%>99%0%
5Liga de Quito4546.70%>99%0%
6Barcelona SC4344.70%>99%0%
7Libertad (Ecuador)4142.20%68.4%0%
8Leones3940.70%26.5%0%
9Emelec3940.00%5.1%0%
10Mushuc Runa3839.20%0%0%
11Guayaquil City FC3637.50%0%0%
12Deportivo Cuenca3536.00%0%0%
13Orense3333.90%0%0%
14Técnico Universitario2930.00%0%16.7%
15Delfín2728.00%0%83.3%
16Manta F.C.2021.20%0%>99%

Upcoming matches — win probabilities

Sat Sep 12Manta F.C. vs Aucas28% W · 31.1% D · 40.9% L
Sat Sep 12Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa38.2% W · 30.4% D · 31.5% L
Sun Sep 13Liga de Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca46.5% W · 31.7% D · 21.9% L
Sun Sep 13Libertad (Ecuador) vs Independiente del Valle30% W · 28.6% D · 41.4% L
Sun Sep 13Leones vs Técnico Universitario47.7% W · 29% D · 23.3% L
Sun Sep 13Barcelona SC vs Delfín45.2% W · 33.1% D · 21.7% L
Sun Sep 13Macará vs Emelec46.4% W · 29.2% D · 24.4% L
Tue Sep 15Universidad Católica (Quito) vs Orense53.7% W · 25.4% D · 20.9% L

Competition rules

The real 2026 format is a 30-round first stage followed by two hexagonals and a quadrangular that decide the title, 3 Copa Libertadores berths and 4 Copa Sudamericana berths (not modeled here — this is the combined single-season table, with the real berth count as the cut line) · bottom 2 relegated · calendar-year season

Follow a club through the season

Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.

Independiente del ValleAucasUniversidad Católica (Quito)MacaráLiga de QuitoBarcelona SC

How these forecasts work

Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.

Open the interactive LigaPro Serie A dashboard →

More leagues

Brasileirão Série ALiga Profesional ArgentinaLiga de PrimeraCategoría Primera APrimera DivisiónLiga 1Brasileirão Série BPrimera NacionalDivisión de HonorDivisión ProfesionalLiga FUTVEAll 78 leagues