Brasileirão Série A 2026 forecastfull forecast
68% of the season played · updated 2026-09-11
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Continental | Releg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 54 | 79.6 | 72.3% | >99% | 0% |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 53 | 76.4 | 27.4% | >99% | 0% |
| 3 | Athletico-PR | 45 | 64.7 | <1% | 97.5% | 0% |
| 4 | Fluminense | 45 | 63.6 | <1% | 95.1% | 0% |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 42 | 60.7 | 0% | 81.3% | 0% |
| 6 | Bahia | 43 | 59.5 | 0% | 76.7% | 0% |
| 7 | Atlético-MG | 36 | 53.2 | 0% | 18.5% | <1% |
| 8 | Coritiba | 37 | 51.4 | 0% | 8.3% | <1% |
| 9 | Red Bull Bragantino | 35 | 50.8 | 0% | 7.5% | <1% |
| 10 | Botafogo | 31 | 51.2 | 0% | 8.3% | 1.1% |
| 11 | São Paulo | 33 | 48.9 | 0% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| 12 | Santos | 32 | 47.4 | 0% | 1.8% | 4.4% |
| 13 | Corinthians | 32 | 46.9 | 0% | <1% | 5.2% |
| 14 | Vitória | 32 | 45.0 | 0% | <1% | 14.4% |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 43.9 | 0% | <1% | 21.5% |
| 16 | Grêmio | 28 | 42.8 | 0% | <1% | 28.3% |
| 17 | Internacional | 25 | 39.6 | 0% | 0% | 57.2% |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 25 | 37.9 | 0% | 0% | 77.4% |
| 19 | Remo | 23 | 36.1 | 0% | 0% | 87.6% |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 27.1 | 0% | 0% | 99.9% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Champion + next 5 reach Libertadores/Sudamericana (approximate — Brazil actually splits these across several named berths) · bottom 4 relegated to Série B
Follow a club through the season
Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive Brasileirão Série A dashboard →