Liga de Expansión MX 2026 forecastfull forecast
52% of the season played · updated 2026-09-15
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Liguilla |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atlético Morelia | 18 | 29.3 | 21.1% | 99.6% |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 17 | 27.8 | 17.3% | 98.7% |
| 3 | Club Atlético La Paz | 14 | 26.0 | 15.5% | 95% |
| 4 | Piratas | 12 | 24.6 | 16.1% | 89.3% |
| 5 | Cancún FC | 10 | 23.4 | 10.7% | 78.4% |
| 6 | Venados FC | 13 | 21.6 | 4.4% | 64.9% |
| 7 | Correcaminos UAT | 12 | 21.5 | 2.7% | 59.6% |
| 8 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 20.7 | 2.7% | 53% |
| 9 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 11 | 20.7 | 3.4% | 49.9% |
| 10 | Tapatío | 11 | 20.7 | 3.1% | 48.2% |
| 11 | Club Jaiba Brava | 10 | 19.3 | 2% | 30% |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 17.4 | <1% | 13.3% |
| 13 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 7 | 16.3 | <1% | 9.6% |
| 14 | Tlaxcala FC | 8 | 15.5 | <1% | 6% |
| 15 | Durango | 8 | 15.3 | <1% | 4.5% |
| 16 | Tepatitlán FC | 3 | 9.8 | 0% | <1% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Top 8 reach the Liguilla (championship playoff, not modeled — the table only decides who qualifies) · promotion to Liga MX returns from 2026-27 following the CAS ruling, but is won in the Liguilla and remains conditional on stadium/financial certification, so no promotion bucket is shown · no relegation · Apertura/Clausura season combined into one table
Follow a club through the season
Current forecasts for every club stay free. Entenser Club Watch follows one club's season and explains what changed and what the next match can change.
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive Liga de Expansión MX dashboard →