Liga de Expansión MX 2026 forecastlive
6% of the season played · updated 2026-07-28
This competition uses a split-round or playoff format that the model approximates as a plain table — details under competition rules below.
Projected table
| # | Club | Pts | Proj | Champ | Liguilla |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Durango | 3 | 34.2 | 54.1% | >99% |
| 2 | Club Atlético Morelia | 3 | 21.7 | 4.4% | 73.5% |
| 3 | Cancún FC | 0 | 22.0 | 5.8% | 71.6% |
| 4 | Tepatitlán FC | 0 | 21.4 | 5.5% | 66.7% |
| 5 | Venados FC | 3 | 20.5 | 3.4% | 65.1% |
| 6 | Leones Negros | 3 | 20.3 | 3.1% | 62.9% |
| 7 | Club Jaiba Brava | 1 | 20.5 | 4.8% | 61.5% |
| 8 | Tapatío | 1 | 20.0 | 2.8% | 57.2% |
| 9 | Piratas | 1 | 18.8 | 5.8% | 45.4% |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 1 | 18.7 | 2.1% | 46.9% |
| 11 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 1 | 18.6 | 5.5% | 43.6% |
| 12 | Club Atlético La Paz | 0 | 17.8 | 1.4% | 35.6% |
| 13 | Correcaminos UAT | 1 | 15.5 | <1% | 22.7% |
| 14 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 0 | 14.4 | <1% | 16.7% |
| 15 | Tlaxcala FC | 0 | 14.7 | <1% | 15.2% |
| 16 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 0 | 14.6 | <1% | 15.4% |
Upcoming matches — win probabilities
Competition rules
Top 8 reach the Liguilla (championship playoff, not modeled — the table only decides who qualifies) · promotion to Liga MX returns from 2026-27 following the CAS ruling, but is won in the Liguilla and remains conditional on stadium/financial certification, so no promotion bucket is shown · no relegation · Apertura/Clausura season combined into one table
How these forecasts work
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
Open the interactive Liga de Expansión MX dashboard →