Week of October 21, 2026
Milford FC’s relegation probability slides 97.4 points to 0% · updated 2026-10-21
Biggest race movement this week
Heracles Almelo Eerste Divisie · Promotion1% → 96% (+94.5)
Preston North End EFL Championship · Relegation16% → 100% (+83.6)
Derby County EFL Championship · Relegation17% → 100% (+83.0)
Metropolitanos Liga FUTVE · Title19% → 93% (+74.7)
Philadelphia Union MLS · Playoffs20% → 92% (+72.1)
Milford FC Betway Premiership · Relegation97% → 0% (-97.4)
Saint-Malo Première Ligue · Relegation86% → 6% (-79.6)
Deportivo La Guaira Liga FUTVE · Title75% → 5% (-69.9)
Metz Ligue 2 · Playoffs67% → 0% (-67.4)
Watford EFL Championship · Playoffs67% → 0% (-67.2)
Closest races right now
USL League One ChampionUnion Omaha 15% · chased by Charlotte Independence, Forward Madison FC
MLS MLS CupNashville SC 20% · chased by Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Inter Miami CF
Liga de Expansión MX ChampionClub Atlético Morelia 21% · chased by Leones Negros, Piratas
Liga MX ChampionToluca 22% · chased by América, Guadalajara
NWSL ChampionGotham FC 25% · chased by Washington Spirit, Portland Thorns FC
USL Super League ChampionCarolina Ascent FC 37% · chased by Lexington SC, Sporting Jax
The receipt — how our high-confidence calls did
Of 12 calls where the model was at least 60% on an outcome this week, 7 hit (58.3%). We publish the misses too:
Otelul Galati 1–1 Csíkszereda Liga I (Romania) · 2026-10-16had Otelul Galati at 69% · draw
Villarreal 0–0 Elche La Liga · 2026-10-17had Villarreal at 69% · draw
Universitatea Cluj 2–2 FC Arges Liga I (Romania) · 2026-10-19had Universitatea Cluj at 68% · draw
Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga · 2026-10-17had Borussia Dortmund at 66% · draw
Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 Nagoya Grampus J1 League · 2026-10-17had Kashiwa Reysol at 66% · away win
Past weeks
How this works
Entenser estimates football outcomes from match results, expected goals, and team-strength ratings. Every forecast is graded in public after the fact, with hits and misses shown together.
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